2024 Consumer Crypto Predictions

“In 2024, I think we will see significant improvements in user experience and security, and an explosion of consumer-facing applications (vs. continued infrastructure plays).”

“A year ago, Layer 2 scaling solutions remained promising but unproven at real consumer scale. Fast forward to now and developer and user adoption is accelerating rapidly on roll-up networks including Arbitrum, Optimism, Base, and Linea. 

As gas fees and blockchain intricacies start to recede from view, abstraction layers on top of L2s translate into consumer readiness. Users simply click to verify their identity on personal wallets and enjoy benefits unlocked by digital ownership and decentralized coordination. This validation of Ethereum's scalability roadmap means builders can now focus on creating truly mainstream user experiences on top of an already thriving, decentralized L1 ecosystem. 

2024 is when we will start to bear the fruits of these compounding infrastructure investments. Use-cases around art, gaming, collectibles, and social will be able to unlock new user growth after  bootstrapping PMF from the existing crypto-natives that were onboarded first to Ethereum L1. 

So while 2021's NFT mania sparked mainstream curiosity, 2024 is when ordinary internet users truly feel empowered by open cultural, financial, and social rails. And it's only possible because infrastructure builders quietly laid groundwork that culminated in 2023 to abstract the friction away.”

“We will (finally!) see a breakout dapp (by Web2 metrics, not Web3 metrics) in 2024, likely from the "socialfi" sector. With the rise of account abstraction and interesting L2 business models, the UX will be frictionless and users will simply be delivered a delightful experience. My specific bet is on sticky-daily-micro-games, like Wordle or Sudoku, but with Web3 primitives hooked therein.”

“In 2024, I think we’ll see more experimental consumer apps coming to market quickly. These will be made uniquely possible by composing different tech stacks within the web3 ecosystem. This year's infrastructure innovations seem abstract in isolation, but they all tie at the application layer and should close the gap between the technical and the experience side of crypto. There hasn’t been enough discussion around the challenges faced by builders who are trying to make web3 more accessible and user friendly. We’re finally only now entering the stage where developers have the tools to create best-in-class consumer products that can reach mass adoption.”

“Thanks to an emerging infrastructure stack -- low fee blockchains, embedded wallet architectures, bonding curves for simplifying economic activity, and progressive web apps (PWAs) -- it's easier than ever to launch consumer crypto apps. Following in FriendTech's steps, I imagine we'll see numerous social experiments go viral this year. Only a handful will have staying power.

Fun bonus: As coins like Bonk have demonstrated, there's power in community building around memes. I imagine some of the biggest token launches will be memecoins on new Layer 1s and Layer 2s.”

“Crypto apps will continue to be worse versions of web2 apps with the advantage of mercenary-drawing ponzi points and the disadvantage of turning every action into a transaction. There will, however, be one exception, proto-apps, or rather, applications that function as protocols for anyone to build plug-ins on top of. By embracing the actual killer features of blockchains—composability, executability, and yes, the promise of financial sustainability—they'll do what no web2 app monetizing off siloed data ever could: turn open data into the very value proposition of the apps themselves. I wrote more about this here.”

“I think that in 2024, we’ll see lots of app-specific innovation driven by new infra. More apps that ignore composability for accessibility (Friendtech), app-specific rollups using OP Stack and modular DA layers, and let’s not forget the OG consumer use case—betting on dog coins.”

“I think Base is going to be the go-to chain for consumer and that Coinbase will throw their weight behind more consumer crypto applications that will take off in 2024. They will use their user base of millions and will popularize a bunch of software companies with a crypto twist.”

“I see two key interconnected trends for 2024.

First, crypto technology will become less noticeable. This means that many consumer use cases will not revolve around the technology itself, nor will they be aimed solely at existing crypto users. This will become evident in the utilization of first-party data and finding a replacement for third-party cookies, as well as addressing the declining effectiveness of social media platforms for consumer brand communication. From a technical standpoint, brands that do not wish to develop their own crypto infrastructure will rely on platforms like Shopify or PayPal to facilitate first-party data relationships and interoperability with other brands.

The second development is the transformation of wallets as we know them into consolidated utilities, with associated costs likely to decrease significantly, possibly reaching negligible levels.”

“I think we'll see more brands implement crypto for consumers with the entire tech stack and terminology abstracted away behind the scenes. Traditional brands who kept crypto too close to the surface are evidently not having significant success. We will also see more brands adopting L2s as their main application/operational layer.”

“Many more consumer applications using crypto back end technologies, many fewer people who will know about it! Looking at .SWOOSH, Reddit, Disney and HotWheels Collectibles and new brands like Blackbird, we are going to see more consumer facing apps and experiences that have blockchains at the core powering them, but where we don’t need to be talking about blockchains and crypto in terms of consumer comms. Behind the scenes tech stacks onchain x web2 front ends without talking about the tech in public.”

“The word NFT will become completely obsolete.”

“The creator economy will be closely intertwined with the attention economy, as AI, the metaverse, gaming, tokenization, and 3D content reshape consumer engagement. This transformation will have a profound impact on marketing, advertising, and retail. Brands will continue to experiment and learn in ways that enable them to create their digital brand identity, distinct from their online presence. They will also focus on building communities and expanding their fan base through new brand experiences. The evolution of retail is underway.”

“I think we’ll see the Creator economy of the web2 world of fashion, beauty and CPG leveraging blockchain infrastructure to unlock new engagement and rewards outside of TikTok, IG, YT. This doesn't mean issuance of incremental assets but leveraging blockchain stack to unlock new multiplayer experiences in their communities, that reflect the value exchange and creation in a truer sense (cue in KIKI community commerce platform and protocol!)”

“We'll see many existing tech, media, and entertainment products look to integrate blockchain into their programs; with varying degrees of success. From celebs to social networks; we'll see a push to deliver "seamless" web3 experiences.”

“Web2 organizations will increasingly leverage blockchain (on the back end) to solve pain points around new customer acquisition and increasing customer engagement/LTV.”

“I think we’re going to see a strong resurgence of payment applications. In my opinion, digital cash continues to be the best use case for crypto, and ethereum continues to make strong advancements in bringing down gas fees. I think we’ll also see crypto adopted as the payment rail in consumer transactions and apps that have high price points. We’re starting to see a bit of this with larger financial institutions using blockchain to tokenize assets and make it easier for users to transact. I think we’ll start to see that trickle down to consumers as well.”

“Gamers don't actually hate web3 games and there will be a breakout hit from a new entrant in 2024.”

“Consumers will begin to understand the value of their data. We saw an incredible amount of interest in Play2Earn in Axie, walk to earn with StepN and even sleep data with Sleepagotchi but the next wave will be led by other parts of our lives like driving. DIMO for example is a tokenized data network using all the sensors in your car. Dash cams like Hivemapper and mobile networks like Pollen / Helium will lead to more robust connected device networks and users that need apps to manage these together.”

“The bar will continue to rise and it will make our industry healthier long term. My hope is that we rethink value chains and consider where this technology can drive the most impact, leveraging all that we’ve learned so far. These are the types of applications that could change the world.”

“The only prediction I ever make is that most predictions are incorrect in hindsight!”